Philippines Faces Stagflationary Risks from Prolonged Strait of Hormuz Closure
A sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses severe stagflationary risks for the Philippines, combining higher inflation with weaker economic growth, according to an analysis published in early March 2026. The assessment highlights the country’s vulnerability to both energy shortages and broader economic disruptions stemming from the ongoing Iran conflict. Currency Vulnerability and Oil Price Sensitivity The Philippine peso is identified as particularly vulnerable in the current crisis. Analysts project that the USD/PHP exchange rate could rise above 60 levels if the conflict persists and the strait remains closed. This baseline assessment assumes a resolution after March 2026, with oil prices falling toward $70 per barrel, supporting a forecast of 58.00 for the peso by the fourth quarter of 2026. However, scenario-based modeling suggests that with oil prices at $90 per barrel, USD/PHP could range between 59.00 and 60.00. Should prices reach $100 per barrel, the exchange rate cou...